Parlay Strategy Rating: 6,0/10 6196 reviews
Parlay Bet A ‘Parlay Bet’ which is also known as an ‘Accumulator’ or ‘Combo Bet’ is a series of single bets that are combined into one wager. You only have to combine 2+ bets in one wager to make it a Parlay Bet. If any of the single bets lose in the wager then the parlay loses. Parlay bets are something that many gamblers are familiar with, but few know about advanced parlay betting strategy or about how to maximize the potential of this wagering tool. Most of the time placing a parlay bet is a bad idea, because they make wagering effectively more difficult without offering enough of an added payout in the process. Parlay Betting Strategies In Sports Betting A parlay bet is a single sports wager that involves two or more teams winning. The allure of this bet has always been a larger payout versus choosing a single team to win.
Many novice bettors are told to stick only to straight bets. That’s because they don’t do the work or research to make wise investments with teasers and parlays. You too may have been told that parlay wagers are considered sucker bets. That’s not accurate at all. There are several instances where betting parlays is a profitable proposition.
Nfl Parlay Strategy
Now, that doesn’t mean you should just throw any two or more teams that you like together into a teaser or a parlay. You have to use a different strategy. This article is going to cover some solid parlay situations where you can KILL a book that allows you to make certain combinations (Check out our teaser guide to see what we mean for each of the different sports).
Correlated Parlays: What They Are Explained & How to Find Them
There’s a lot that goes into making a strong parlay bet. First things first, you need to make sure you understand how parlays work. That’s just the start, there’s more advanced stuff like when is the right time to hedge your bets.
I’m not going to get into all of that today. Instead, I’m going to introduce to you what a correlated parlay is. I’ll explain exactly what it is and how to find them.
Definition
I’m going to keep it simple. A correlated parlay is a wager in which you have two bets that are tied together. If one of the wagers wins, your chances of winning the second bet increases. Most sports books are not going to accept these types of wagers because if they did, they wouldn’t stay in business very long.
Are they Profitable?
So what would it take for a correlated parlay to be profitable? If you are hooking up two teams the payout is typically 2.5-to-1. That means that you have to win 28.6% of your two teamers to turn a profit. That is figured by the return of 3.5 divided by your risk which is 1.
Now a few books like 5Dimes will give you a 2.64-to-1 payout. In that case, you only have to win 27.5% of your two-team parlays in order to turn a profit.
Let’s assume one side of your parlays hits at 50% of the time. How probable does the second event need to be in order for the parlay to be to your advantage? For the typical two-team parlay payout it needs to be 57.2% (.572 * .5 = 2.86). If your payout is 2.64-to-1 then it’s 55% (.55 * .5 = .275).
Now let’s look at situations where if one leg of the parlay wins, the other wins at more than a 57.2% clip. There are several different types of these wagers. I’m going to cover two of the most basic ones in this article.
Why You Can’t Parlay First Half with Full Game Odds
First, we are going to look at the correlation between the first half spread and the spread for the game. Next, we will look at the correlation of betting the spread and total on the same game.
If a team covers the first-half spread of a game, how often do they also cover the point spread for the entire game? If you know the team that covers the first half line is more likely to cover for the game, you can parlay those wagers and make a killing, right?
That is exactly the question I wanted to answer, and I was pretty impressed by the results.
First things first, I want everyone to understand that I am aware that no online or Vegas sportsbooks (that I know of) allow correlated parlays. This article is more about why correlated first half parlays aren’t allowed, however, if you have a local book happens to allow them, you can most definitely use this information to your advantage, that is, until your book cuts you off!
Why it is Profitable
What exactly is a correlated first half/full game parlay? You are looking to bet the first half and the full game on the same team. Either the favorite or the underdog. You can do both, but that will appear pretty obvious and likely to get you cut off sooner.
I’ve provided the hard numbers for the NFL and NBA below, but let’s just talk about the method behind the madness first. We are going to use typical two-team parlay odds, which pay 2.5-to-1 (or bet $100 to win $250). We will also use $100 as the base bet amount to make things as easy to understand as possible.
Let’s say the Patriots are favored in a game against the Lions by 7 points. In the first half, they are likely to be 3.5-4 point favorites. Our bets for this game would be:
- $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Patriots -3.5 (1st Half)/Patriots -7 (Game)
- $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Lions +3.5 (1st Half)/Lions +7 (Game)
Now obviously one of these wagers is going to lose, but that’s ok! Our goal here is just to win however many parlays we need to in order to turn a profit. Let’s say you decide you are going to bet correlated parlays on five games on a Sunday, how many parlays would you need to hit in order to turn a profit?
The worst you can perform and still turn a profit is to go 3-7 (30%) on the night. Here’s the math:
- 7 Losses x $100 = $700
- 3 Wins x $250 = $750
- Total Profit = $50
Now, based on an uncorrelated two-team parlay, you are only expected to win 25% of your bets (50% chance to win each = 25% chance to win both). This makes sense – otherwise, everyone would just win truck loads of money by betting parlays.
The secret here is to increase our chances of winning the second piece of the parlay. That’s where the correlation between the first half line and the game line come in. When teams cover the first half line, they have better than a 50% of covering the line for the game, right? Logic would tell us that they would, however, hard data is even better.
Historical Data from the NFL and NBA
NFL
- Favorite Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 73.3%
- Underdog Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 76.7%
NBA
- Favorite Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 70.1%
- Underdog Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 69.8%
In all of these situations, if the team covers the first half line, they are much more likely to cover the game line. For example, using NFL favorites, you are given the standard 50% chance to win the first half, but then a 73.3% chance to win the game, meaning you have about a 36.6% chance of winning your parlay.
Since you only need to hit 30% of your parlays (28.6%, to be exact) to turn a profit, these bets are a no-brainer! In fact, if you can increase your chance of winning the second bet in your parlay by 7% (so up to 57%), you should make a profit over time.
Let’s look at the expected return. Let’s just say you hit 75% in the NFL and 70% in the NBA to keep it simple. So .5 *.75 = .375 means 37.5% of the time you win $250. You lose $100 62.5% of the time. Your expected profit would be 93.75 (.375 * 250) – 62.50 (.625 * 100) for $31.25 for every $100 bet. Now if the number is 70% in the NBA you get .5 * .7 = .35. 35% of the time you’d win $250 and 65% of the time you’d lose $100. (.35 * 250) – (.65 * 100) = 87.50 – 65.00 for $22.50 of profit for every $100 bet.
You can now see why sportsbooks won’t allow you to bet parlays on the first half and game of most major sporting events. If bettors were allowed to wager on these, they would soon be out of business, as you are nearly guaranteed to make a profit over time with this method.
Of course, there may be some local books out there that aren’t aware of this, so don’t be afraid to ask around and see if there’s a sucker out there willing to take these bets!
Why No Same Game Parlays in Football? They Are Correlated
I took a look at the four major spread sports and ran the numbers. I was trying to find any situations where if a favorite or underdog covered and the total hit more than 57.2% of the time. Here is what I found.
College Football
I went back to the last 3,732 games a favorite covered the spread. What I found was the over had a record of 1,959-1,773 (52.5%). In the 3,361 games when the team a field goal or more favorite the over was 1,793-1,568 (53.3%). If the team was laying a touchdown or more the over was 1,328-1,082 (55.1%).
The over percentages started picking up when we look at double digit favorites. The over then hit 57.4% of the time on a record of 1,090-808. When a favorite of two touchdowns or more covers the over went 838-582 (59%). A 20+ point favorite covering leads to a 547-321 record for the over (63%).
When a team 28+ point favorite covers the over has hit 261-122 (68.1%) of the time. When you stretch the line out to 30 point favorites or higher the number jumps up to 216-92 (70.1%).
If a team a 35 points or more chalk and covers the over went 127-51 (71.3%). There have only been 95 favorites of 40+ points in recent years with a lined total. In those games, if the favorite covers the over was 65-29 (69.1%).
If instead of looking at the hard numbers you go with percentages then the magic number seems to be about 40%. The spread has to be 40% of the total for you to take the favorite and the over or the underdog and the under.
Overall this system has seen the over go 495-274 (64.4%) when the favorite covers. Keep that in mind when taking a look at the college football odds every week.
NFL
So let’s take a look at the same parameters in the NFL. Here you won’t find nearly the same correlation. Looking at all favorites the over has gone just 1,576-1,532 (50.7%).
Let’s see if the over hits at a higher rate as we increase the number. A field goal or more favorite covering means a record of just 1,289-1,245 for the OVER (50.9%). Move up to a touchdown or more you will find the over was 527-487 (52%). However, stretch it out to double digits and when the favorite covers the over only went 203-194 (51.1%).
Favorites of more than two touchdowns that covered also went over the total 56.2% of the time at 50-39.
There is no magic number with percentages here either. That makes sense. There aren’t going to be as large of favorites in the pros v. college. There are only 16 games that have seen a spread at 40% or more of the total.
The bottom line is you can’t rely on any sort of correlation to beat the pro lines each Sunday.
In basketball, you’ll find the trend reverses. This makes sense. What happens when a big favorite is up at the end of the game? Both teams kill the clock and try to get out of there. Here is the data that I found.
NBA
Favorites of 5.5 or more that cover goes UNDER 51.1% of the time at 3,368-3,224. If you stretch the number up to double digit favorites who hit, the UNDER lands 52.5% of the time at 1,006-912. If you go up to favorites of 15 points or more that cover the under has hit 56.2% of the time at 122-95.
College Basketball
There doesn’t seem to be as much correlation with NCAA basketball. When a team covers as a favorite of six or more the under went 4,309-3,954 (52.1%). Favorites of eight or more that covered went under 3,264-2,865 (53.3%) of the time.
However, once you went up to double digits the numbers started dropping. Double digit favorites went under 52.8% of the time (2,318-2,072). 13+ point chalk that covered only went under 1,371-1,231 (52.7%) of the time.
Conclusion
The problem with the correlated parlays is finding a place that will take your action. The reputable sportsbooks that we use know about these statistics and won’t let you play them. You will need to find a square book to take the action. Or, just pair up the smaller spreads that you really like with the corresponding total.
- Don’t be afraid. Be ambitious.
- Choose a parlay time span that suits you.
- Avoid the points spread.
- Expand your parlay horizons, Include multiple sports.
- Look for a hedge opportunity
- Use free bets
- The home underdog
- Combining two favourites
- The ‘Double Dog’ parlay
- Keep bet size under control
- Use a system bet
- The overnight parlay
- Actively search out bookmakers promotions
- Use multiple online accounts
1. Don’t Be Afraid. Be ambitious.
Parlays are a wonderful way to turn a small stake into a juicy bank boosting payout. Be ambitious, swing for the fence, this is not a time to be conservative. This is the time to link together some of those ‘gut feel’ wagers’ that you might otherwise not be eager to stake a full unit or even multiple units on.
The small stake multiplying through to large payout odds works in your favor here. Double figure odds are par for the course. This is how successful parlay bettors turn a 10 – 1 half unit parlay into a 5 unit betting bank booster.
Landing a big parlay not only kicks your account balance along but it gives you bragging rights over your buddies for weeks. Heck even the bad beats that go oh so close can be worn as a badge of honor.
Fortune favors the brave!
2. Choose a Parlay Time Span That Suits You.
A parlay by nature does not payout until all legs are settled. The time it takes for this to occur should really meet your needs as a gambler. If you are not comfortable with your stake being tied up for a long period of time then ensure your parlay legs all conclude at a similar time or at least on the same day.
The opportunity cost of having you stake locked into a multi day, week or even month long parlay can be expensive. This is magnified when several legs have already come through for you and your stake may have already triple or quadruple bagged but you can’t access that money till a final leg plays out. Even a hedge, while guaranteeing a result, will still cost you another portion of your capital.
On the flipside you may be a gambler who loves to milk maximum entertainment from your parlay, and in this case, you may like to string it out across an entire weekend or even season. Futures markets are your friend. Having your stake spoken for over a long period let’s you soak up the anticipation and affords you the chance to enjoy the prospect of a potential big win, perhaps dreaming of how you will spend it or reinvest it!
Each to their own, but be sure to build a parlay that fits your time frame.
3. Avoid the Point Spread
The cardinal sin for all recreational punters is the parlay that groups together points spread (handicap) wagers. At first glance this seems like a wonderful way to land yourself some juicy odds, after all, three bets ATS (against the spread) multiply to just shy of 7-1. Surely a great bet? Wrong!
The true odds for this 3 leg parlay are actually 8-1 given that each individual leg is a 50/50 chance of landing. No wonder sportsbooks actively promote the points spread parlay!
The only caveat to the poor value of the point spread parlay is if the bettor firmly believes they have found games where the sportsbooks have the handicap wrong. This is possible but beware you are taking on the pros. It is better in this case to bet on each outcome outright as opposed to the parlay.
For a comprehensive look into the points spread parlay click here.
4. Expand Your Parlay Horizons, Include Multiple Sports.
The best value bets often don’t congregate in the one sport. Bookmakers encourage betters to keep their picks to one sport as finding value across multiple matches in the one league is a difficult task. With a wider variety of options available to the better, value will be easier to find. A key ingredient in to successful parlay strategy.
Expand your parlay horizons in the following way:
- Broaden your search to multiple sports,
- Create a short list of possible value picks
- Decide on the length of your parlay
- Narrow down short list to suit
- Load up!
5. Look for a Hedge Opportunity
One of the wonderful opportunities afforded by a well placed parlay is the chance to hedge against the last leg should the earlier legs have already landed. A hedge will give you guaranteed winnings or at the very least safeguard your stake. One of the best ways to ensure you don’t blow your account up is to play defense.
Hedging is not negative play and it does not demonstrate a lack of confidence in your original bet. It is simply playing the numbers and buying some insurance. All experienced bettors know that fate can, and often will intervene at inopportune times. An injury to a key player here, a horrible call from a referee there and your parlay can come crashing down.
Lock some profit in, kick back, and watch the game, or better still start researching your next parlay!
6. Use Free Bets
Many online sports books reward clients for loyalty, making deposits, regular betting or for wagering on promotional markets in the form of bonus or free bets. The issue with these is that as the bettor, you only receive the profit from your free bet and not the original stake. For example in the case of a $10 free bet, if you were to wager on a -110 moneyline favourite and they win, you will only receive $9.20 as a payout. The $10 free bet acting as your original stake is not returned. Doesn’t seem very exciting.
The solution; use your free bets on parlays. This way you can take a shot at a combination of wagers that deliver you final odds much more enticing than an uninspiring favourite.
For example a $10 bet on a parlay offering odds of 9 – 1 will see your eventual payout being $80. That is the usual payout of $90 less the free bet stake of $10, leaving you with $80.
7. The Home Underdog
Home field advantage is an amazing thing in the world of sports. Teams seem to grow an extra leg when they run out in front of their families and legion of faithful fans. Unique weather conditions, stadium layouts, home cooking and the chance to sleep in their own bed without question motivates athletes. That overconfident star studded visiting team may just find themselves in an ambush.
It is for these reasons that home underdogs (pick and choose carefully) are always worth consideration in a parlay. The underdog status carries with it a powerful odds multiplying effect. Just the thing every well played parlay needs. You could expect a home underdog to be paying well above 2 – 1 odds, essentially at the very least doubling the parlay total odds.
8. Combining Two Favorites
Loading up on a big favorite is always a temptation for the online sports bettor. A quick in and out to bank some profit to boost your account. The issue here is normally the gambler has to wager quite a large stake to see any significant return. Not always the best idea for long term success. One run of losses and your account balance cops a beat down.
This is where the favourites parlay double comes in handy. Find two carefully chosen favorites, bundle them together into a parlay and let your stake and profit from the first win ride into the second leg. The end result is a much smaller stake at risk but still an excellent return.
For example the NBA parlay below sees two strong home favourites combine together to make a solid bet at decimal odds of 1.82. Nice return.
9. The Double Dog Parlay
An underrated but powerful parlay is the underdog double. By carefully scanning available markets and choosing two value underdogs and sneaking them into a double you will be staring down odds of +400 (Decimal odds 5.00) or better without too much trouble.
Many a gambler has a story of a 4 or 5 leg parlay of strong favorites offering combined odds of about 3 to 1. The first four legs roll on and win easily and sure enough the last one has ‘one of those days’ and gets beaten by a heavy underdog. You in turn do your dough and are left asking the question, if only I had wagered on that dog.
In many ways the double underdog parlay represents considerably more value that bundle of favourites. Major League Baseball and the NBA throw up double underdog winners seemingly on a daily basis.
10. Keep Bet Size Under Control
Juicy odds can sometimes blind a gambler. Even before the parlay has been placed the blinded bettor is already doing the math and dreaming of a tsunami of cash. Self talk can creep in and soon the bettor has convinced themself that an increase in bet size is the clever move here. More often than not the simple answer is it isn’t.
Just like the golfer, who wants to hit the ball further, maintains the same swing but changes the club to not upset their rhythm,so it is with the successful parlay bettor. If it is big payout they are chasing, the stake remains the same, but the parlay becomes more elaborate. That way if the parlay loses (which happens regularly) the bettor has not be taken to the cleaners but blowing an oversized stake.
11. Use a Parlay System Bet
A parlay system bet builds into the bet some insurance in case one leg fails. It actually gives you multiple winning combinations and there is plenty to like about that!
There are many systems available to choose from and they are based around the amount of legs within your parlay and are typically available on parlays of between 2 and 8 legs. A great example is a ‘yankee’ which called into action on a 4 option parlay. When placing ‘yankee’ instead of one bet you in actual fact are placing 11 separate bets across which your stake is divided evenly.
Instead of one four leg parlay the yankee looks like this:
- 1 four-fold
- 4 trebles
- 6 doubles
Depending on the odds of each individual leg you may be able to cover your original stake with just two legs landing.
For more a more comprehensive breakdown of all the system bets available click here.
12. The Overnight Parlay
The overnight parlay is a rarely spoken about use of the humble combination wager. It is essentially where a bettor loads up a parlay that will result while they are sleeping. It is often used as an attempt to build a bank for the next days local action. More often than not it is placed on sports played abroad, where the time zone differences are used to the bettor’s advantage.
Time zones in Asia, Australia and Europe are suited to the US sports bettor. These markets also have established sports betting communities and as a result thousands of markets are on offer. A small amount of knowledge on some overseas sports can have you earning while snoozing. What a great combination!
13. Actively Search Out Bookmaker Promotions.
Best Parlay Strategy
Sportsbooks constantly offer excellent promotions on parlay betting. They know that a poorly placed parlay is loaded in their favor and do their best to encourage more action on these types of bets. This presents a rich vein of opportunity for the bettor and you need to go after it!
Some classic promotions to look out for:
- Free Bet matching the stake if the parlay loses by one option. (usually capped at a certain figure eg $25)
- A daily odds boost on your first parlay (invariably about 5% boost).
- A promotional odds boost on parlays that meet certain conditions (eg. 50% extra on 4+ legs NBA parlay)
- Percentage of your stake returned on losing parlays (eg 20%) if certain conditions are met. (eg 4+ legs all on Major League Baseball)
14. Use Multiple Online Accounts
Multiple online accounts is a sophisticated way to take advantage of the sportsbooks parlay promotional markets. While the obvious disadvantage of owning more than one account is that it makes it much more difficult to keep track of your betting history (clearly this can be dangerous), its upside is that you can lock in on any promotional parlay in the marketplace.
Often the books are running concurrent parlay promotions but on differing sports. For example in the month of April one book’s promotion may be targeting major league baseball while others may be focused on the NBA playoffs. Owning accounts at both books means you can hit both promotions. Consistently winning is difficult so any way to improve your chances should be jumped at!
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